Projects to Avoid Catastrophes
نویسنده
چکیده
How should we evaluate public policies or projects that are intended to reduce the likelihood or potential impact of a catastrophic event? Examples might include a greenhouse gas abatement policy to avert a climate change catastrophe, or the construction of levees to avert major flooding. Projects that reduce the likelihood or potential impact of catastrophic events are essentially out-of-the-money put options, can be evaluated as such, and can have negative discount rates. However, the value of the project (as a contingent claim) may be higher or lower than society’s willingness to pay for it, and may be higher or lower than the government’s ability to actually provide it.
منابع مشابه
Trial without Error: Towards Safe Reinforcement Learning via Human Intervention
AI systems are increasingly applied to complex tasks that involve interaction with humans. During training, such systems are potentially dangerous, as they haven’t yet learned to avoid actions that could cause serious harm. How can an AI system explore and learn without making a single mistake that harms humans or otherwise causes serious damage? For model-free reinforcement learning, having a ...
متن کاملHip sonography update. Quality-management, catastrophes - tips and tricks.
AIM Hip sonography is today considered to be the diagnostic standard tool for developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) diagnosis. In Germany special commissions control the quality of the sonograms according to checklists to keep the standard high and to avoid over- and under - treatment. This paper lists tips and tricks to avoid typical mistakes according to these results. MATERIAL AND METHO...
متن کاملAnalysis of interactions among barriers in project risk management
In the context of the scope, time, cost, and quality constraints, failure is not uncommon in project management. While small projects have 70% chances of success, large projects virtually have no chance of meeting the quadruple constraints. While there is no dearth of research on project risk management, the manifestation of barriers to project risk management is a less dwelt topic. The success...
متن کاملClimate treaties and approaching catastrophes
If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries’ behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower, treaties typically fail to help countries cooperate to avoid catastrophe, sustaining only modest cuts in emis...
متن کاملThe impact of mega-catastrophes on insurers: an exposure-based analysis of the U.S. homeowners' insurance market.
Insurance is a key risk-sharing mechanism that protects citizens and governments from the losses caused by natural catastrophes. Given the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural catastrophes over recent years, this article analyzes the performance effects of mega-catastrophes for U.S. insurance firms using a measure of market expectations. Specifically, we analyze the share price lo...
متن کامل